JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
The war in Iran is now entering its third month. China is not an official mediator, but it's widely seen as playing a significant behind-the-scenes role by Washington as well as Tehran. So how does Beijing see this war? We're joined now by NPR's China correspondent Jennifer Pak, who's speaking to us from Shanghai. Hi there.
JENNIFER PAK, BYLINE: Hi, Juana.
SUMMERS: Jennifer, first, let's talk about where China stands in this conflict. Can it help end it?
PAK: Well, officially, China says it does not take sides in this war. It's been calling on all parties to negotiate. But of course, China is not impartial. Beijing is Tehran's strategic partner. Economically, it has investments in Iran and used to buy most of Iran's oil. There is an assumption that China could be in a unique position to influence Iran in this conflict. But analysts we've been speaking to are skeptical, for example, Helena Legarda with the Berlin-based think tank Mercator Institute for China Studies. She says China's leverage over Iran is overstated.
HELENA LEGARDA: China does not have control over the government in Tehran. They can't force them into something they didn't want to do.
PAK: And Chinese experts also echo this argument. Shen Weizhong is with a think tank in Beijing called the Global Governance Institution.
SHEN WEIZHONG: I don't think China will try to push or force our friends into talking.
PAK: Unless, he says, Iran is ready to do so.
SUMMERS: Now, the war in Iran has been raising just a lot of questions about the future world order. Where does China fit in that future, and is it winning at the expense of the United States?
PAK: Depends how you define winning. Does China look like a more stable global actor at this moment? Yes. And some analysts say that in the long term, China wins if the U.S. is distracted in the Middle East and it'll be less focused on China. But that's not how China sees the world. This is according to Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
ZOE LIU: Chinese policymakers, they do not view every American loss is a Chinese gain.
PAK: Because China is a major trading partner with all other countries involved in this conflict, if the war drags on, Liu says, that's bad for China's economy at a time when the economy is already sluggish, and that's not good news for the Communist Party.
SUMMERS: Well, what about Taiwan? With the U.S. mired in overseas conflicts again, is there a sense in Beijing that time is ripe for taking Taiwan, which China has long claimed as its own territory?
PAK: While Taiwan is a long-term priority for Beijing, Chinese analysts always say that China has never set a date for when it will take Taiwan. And the most recent U.S. intel assessment concludes that China does not intend to invade Taiwan in 2027. Right now, Beijing has a lot of problems domestically. We talked about the economy earlier - that's just being one of them. And given what's happening in the world today, the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and the U.S. being distracted, there's a sense in China these days that time is on its side. It doesn't seem to be in a hurry to take action on Taiwan.
SUMMERS: The Iran war has pushed President Trump's China visit into next month. Does the conflict fundamentally change what Beijing wants from the summit with Trump?
PAK: I mean, with all the problems that Beijing has at home, it's certainly paying closer attention to the global economy because its own economy is still very dependent on exports. And that's why in his recent meeting with the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said the international world order is crumbling into disarray. He's worried because Beijing has spent the last three decades thriving on the Washington-led global system in its favor, says analyst Liu.
LIU: Now, with the Trump administration and their erratic and unpredictable behaviors, America is undermining the system that China learned how to play the game.
PAK: So Liu says it's now even more important for the two global superpowers to sit and talk.
SUMMERS: NPR's Jennifer Pak in Shanghai, thank you.
PAK: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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