LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For more on how U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf are approaching this latest stage of the war, we're joined by Joseph Westphal. He's a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the Obama administration and now a senior global fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Lauder Institute. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
JOSEPH WESTPHAL: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: So why are Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE pushing for this delay?
WESTPHAL: Well, they have very strong economic incentives to do that. The problem, I think, is that they themselves are not united as a group. You know, the Gulf Cooperative (ph) Council, which we had always hoped would be strengthened, is really weak these days. And the UAE and Saudi Arabia are having these skirmishes where, you know, the UAE's withdrawing from OPEC, and their relationship is really not in the best of - since today because of the connection of the UAE and Israel. So I think they are not as united in this. They certainly want to be able to open the commerce.
FADEL: In the Strait of Hormuz?
WESTPHAL: Yeah, in the Straits (ph) of Hormuz. That's really important to them. But, you know, the Iranians have the upper hand.
FADEL: Do these Gulf countries have the leverage to get the U.S. to listen to their request? And are they sending - you said they're not united on many issues, but are they sending a united sort of message to the United States?
WESTPHAL: I think there are individual messages. I wouldn't say it's a united message. I think there, you know, the - Mohammed bin Salman will talk to President Trump and so on. So it's not a coordinated effort, but I think they all have an end state that they want to see this war come to an end. They want to see commerce move forward. Iran is, you know, in a very weakened state. They will survive this, but how long they will survive it is unknown. The regime, I mean.
FADEL: You mentioned Iran has the upper hand here. Why do you say that?
WESTPHAL: Well, because they - first of all, they have the - they have retained the ability to halt the flow of traffic on - in the straits. And so this choke on the vital supply chains that exist - not only for the Gulf countries, but for the rest of the world, for China, for us and others - is really, really pretty crucial. So they have the upper hand right now because we are trying to negotiate something that they're not really willing to negotiate. They're still a very hard-line group. They're not going to give up some of the things that maybe the administration wants to give up. Israel, on the other hand, is fighting for its survival. It's a very different view that Israel has of this war than the United States.
FADEL: Let me ask you about that because as the Gulf countries are saying let's have a delay, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had this very contentious call in which he was pushing for a resumption of the war. And Trump is saying he'll do whatever I want him to do. How much leverage does Israel have here over the United States?
WESTPHAL: I think it has a lot. I think it has a significant amount of leverage. Would I say total leverage? No. I think their goal is so important to them, they're so driven by this threat that Iran poses for them - not only in terms of Iran itself, but it's proxies and militias that they're still fighting in Lebanon and other places - I think that Israel is - got to maintain a very, very aggressive position to continue this war and to bring down this regime.
FADEL: Now, we - all of these countries agree that they don't want Iran to get to a nuclear weapon, and that is the stated goal in - well, one of many that the U.S. has said. But is that really the main issue that is driving these decisions right now when it comes to what the U.S. is going to do and what allies are pressuring the U.S. to do?
WESTPHAL: Personally, I don't think so. You know, when I was ambassador, I had a conversation with Mohammed bin Salman about the nuclear pieces.
FADEL: Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.
WESTPHAL: Yes. When we were negotiating the nuclear piece. And he said, you know, we're not concerned that Iran will deploy a nuclear weapon, we're concerned that Iran will have a nuclear accident, much like Chernobyl, for example, which will affect all of us, that's why we need to stop their nuclear ambition as much as possible.
FADEL: Joseph Westphal is a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Thank you for your time and your insights.
WESTPHAL: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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