MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wanted to get additional perspective on what we're seeing and hearing at the funeral. We've called Iranian American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh for this. He was a political prisoner released as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. He now teaches international relations at New York University, and he writes the "Iran Crisis Notebook" on Substack. Professor, good morning. Thank you so much for joining us.
KIAN TAJBAKHSH: Good morning. I'm happy to be here.
MARTIN: So watching the ayatollah's funeral from a distance, what stands out to you?
TAJBAKHSH: Well, I think, you know, especially on this day, on this weekend of 250 anniversary of the United States, I think, for me, the issue of consent. It's the one-word consent. That is to say, the whole idea of a government-organized, you know, funeral in which it mobilizes millions of people, many through coercion - not all, but many - I think, brings out the fact that this isn't only or primarily a voluntary outpouring of national grief. It represents probably at most 15 or 20% of the population of the country that supports the regime wholeheartedly.
People have to remember that over 60% of the population we estimate do not support this regime, and that leaves about 30% who are politically passive. But I think the - you know, I think what strikes people when they see this - a large number of people in the streets is the fact that the last time we saw a large number of people in the streets, they were protesting the government, and their presence in the public square was illegal, and it was met with a government crackdown. So I think that this contrast is not lost on many people inside Iran.
MARTIN: The red flag signifying revenge, the signs that - especially the ones that are in English, that say, kill Trump, or there will be blood, with a picture of the vice president's face on it. Who are these messages for?
TAJBAKHSH: You know, I think they are messages for everyone. I mean, I think, first of all, the idea of revenge is an Islamic precept. It's part of Islamic morality, ethics and law. The idea of an eye for an eye is actually included as part of the Islamic approach to justice. But I would say it's mostly oriented and signaled to the outside world because, obviously, if they're in English, they're not being read that much by Iranians. And it's the 20% I mentioned who is the hardcore base of the regime. It's signaling to them that the government, you know, will not forget this. But it's almost obligatory, but it's not meaningless either. In other words, the government - it's a signal that we still maintain our antagonistic stand towards the United States, even while we're negotiating.
MARTIN: Is there any - was there ever any doubt that there would be such messages there? I mean, you would've found it - I think I hear you say that you would've found it significant if there were not such messages being displayed there.
TAJBAKHSH: Yes. I would have, I think. I think, yes, I would have. You know, on the other hand, you know, seeing such, you know, organized billboards and something is very different from small scale, you know, people's funeral in which I - yes. It's true. I've never seen these at normal - signs in normal funerals. But I think it's also an indication of the fact that it's a signal to many people inside the country that the supporters and their opponents with one message, which is that don't think that if we're sitting down and negotiating across the table with Americans, we're doing that from a desire for a long-term reconciliation. This is something - this revenge will not go away. This hurt that the regime feels will not go away. And that's the overall context in which we're negotiating.
MARTIN: I was going to ask you about that because we only have about a minute left. I was going to ask you, you know, the next round of ceasefire talks are currently on hold. According to Qatar, that's because of the funeral. There've already been attacks in this latest phase. We're about halfway through this sort of designated negotiation period. So I wanted to ask if this event - does this implicate the negotiations in any way? Do you think it has any effect on the negotiations in any way?
TAJBAKHSH: You know, I don't think it has a short-term or immediate impact. I think that the negotiations will go on. That is more a reflection of the balance of forces that the Iranian military was able to impose on the American military, you know, which President Trump decided should move towards a ceasefire. I don't see that ceasefire. I don't see that negotiation itself. You know, that's going to struggle by its own contradictions.
MARTIN: We have to leave it there for now. That's the professor of international relations, Kian Tajbakhsh. He teaches at NYU. Professor, thank you so much for joining us.
TAJBAKHSH: Thank you.
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