A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Asia is feeling the energy shock from the Iran war. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. And very little crude oil and liquefied natural gas is getting through. The vast majority of that oil and gas would normally be sent to Asia. Almost 70% goes to China, India, Japan and South Korea. Now, some places have been forced to cut back to keep the lights on. That's according to Sam Reynolds, who studies Asian markets at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
SAM REYNOLDS: In the early weeks of the crisis, we've seen some emergency demand-side measures that really reflect ongoing panic. And just to give a few examples here, the city of Pune in India suspended gas-based cremations due to fears about shortages of butane and propane. We've seen universities closed in Bangladesh, schools closed throughout Pakistan. So these are just a few of the kind of measures we're seeing around the region.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, much of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to China. So I'm wondering how China is doing with all this.
REYNOLDS: Yeah, well, ever since the early part of this decade, China has really doubled down in terms of its own domestic energy production for energy security purposes. In other words, it's prepared for this crisis in a way that I think many other countries haven't. For the first time, the country has more wind and solar capacity on its grid than it does fossil fuel capacity. So that's one buffer. It also has record levels of crude oil in storage. It's got about 120 days' worth. It's also been ramping up its domestic production of natural gas.
MARTÍNEZ: Are there any countries that have maybe more reserves or more renewables that maybe can mirror China when it comes to having options?
REYNOLDS: Yeah. Pakistan really learned its lesson in 2022. It said it was no longer going to build any more LNG - that's liquefied natural gas - fired power plants in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine because energy prices just skyrocketed. And since then, Pakistan has built out a massive amount of solar, particularly on households and businesses, and is now the world's sixth largest solar market. So that is insulating it relative to the energy shock from 2022.
MARTÍNEZ: Is there anything from what happened then that we can learn today in 2026?
REYNOLDS: I think the clear lesson is that the countries that insulated themselves from geopolitical shocks are the best equipped to handle them when they inevitably occur, right? Exposure to global commodity markets poses a perpetual risk of disruption. And renewable energy offers a strategic hedge against this kind of commodity market volatility. I estimate that 1 gigawatt of solar could save roughly $3 billion on imported fuel costs that you might otherwise need for a gas-fired power plant. The more expensive this crisis becomes for Asian markets, the more likely we are to see that longer-term strategic shift.
MARTÍNEZ: If Asian markets can't buy oil from the Gulf, what do they do? Where do they go? Who might be the ones to rush in and save them? And who might be the winners here if they can sell oil to Asia?
REYNOLDS: We've seen some turns to import more Russian oil, for example, from India. And the U.S. actually suspended the threat of higher tariffs for India's imports of Russian oil in order to allow them a greater buffer. But as this crisis goes on, we are likely to see a bidding war for limited available supply. And often what that means is when prices are skyrocketing, it's the emerging countries that get forced out.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Sam Reynolds. He's a research lead at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Sam, thanks a lot.
REYNOLDS: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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