STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
What can we learn from Russia's attacks on Kyiv? Let's ask Hanna Notte, who studies Russia as director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. She is on the line from Berlin. Welcome.
HANNA NOTTE: Hi, Steve. Thanks for having me.
INSKEEP: What do you make of Russian strikes all over Kyiv?
NOTTE: Yeah. I think this is happening at a time when the war in Ukraine isn't going well for Russia. The front is barely moving on some parts. The Russians are even losing territory for the first time since October 2023. And your reporter just hinted at this - there's this growing Russian unease about Ukraine's deep-strike campaign, which is not just targeting oil facilities in Russia, deep inside Russia. But it's also bringing the war closer to Russian cities, to the Russian people. And the Russians don't have a good answer to this.
So I think with this massive attack on the weekend, the Kremlin is sending messages to two different audiences, really. First, it wants to signal strength to the Russian people, basically saying, you know, we are standing up for ourselves. We're pushing back here. And the second message is really to Europe. Your reporter noted the use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can hit targets across Europe and is very difficult to intercept. So what the Russians are doing here is they're signaling to Ukraine's Western supporters that Russia could escalate against them if they don't stop supporting Ukraine. And this, Steve, is just really building on similar warnings that the Russians have issued over recent months. They, for example, threatened the Baltic states recently...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
NOTTE: ...Accusing them of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace. And they've also made sort of similar statements vis-a-vis European countries through the spring. So this is an act of desperation of a Russia whose war isn't going according to plan.
INSKEEP: OK. So they're saying, this missile could come to a city near you, Europe. And they are also reassuring their people that they're responding. But you just said desperation. Ukraine has been sending drones over into Russia for a few years, I believe. What has made their attacks so much more effective and so much more threatening to Russia recently?
NOTTE: Well, I think the Ukrainians have been innovating their drone capabilities through four years of war because they are fighting this war directly against Russia, so they have very sophisticated capabilities now. In fact, so sophisticated that countries in the Middle East, for example, are now turning to Ukraine for that kind of capability to help them.
INSKEEP: Oh, yeah.
NOTTE: So it's really this innovation cycle that is emanating from the war directly that has made the Ukrainians so strong on this front.
INSKEEP: We heard that Russian oil-refining capacity is down 10% because of these strikes. We would imagine other parts of the petrochemical industry are affected. But up to now, we've heard that the Russian economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of everything. Is there any indication that Russia is at risk of not being able to continue forever?
NOTTE: Well, look. I think the Russian economy is facing structural challenges. It has a big budget deficit this year. It has structural problems. Basically, Steve, it's developed into a two-speeds economy of sorts, where a lot of cash goes to the military sector but not into the civilian economy. So small, medium-size businesses are struggling. Everything is getting more expensive for the average Russian consumer. And of course, the Russian economy is becoming so dependent on China for both imports and exports.
Now, the Iran war and the rising oil prices are giving the Russians some temporary reprieve. They're giving higher revenues to the Russian budget. But this is just really a temporary reprieve and doesn't change this fundamental structural outlook. Now, having said that, the Russian economy's not at a point where it is close to collapsing either. It's the slow structural decline that we're talking about.
INSKEEP: So we have these Russian attacks all across Kyiv, in every section of Kyiv. And then Russians say to foreign diplomats and other officials, get out of Kyiv for your own safety. Apparently, even the Russian foreign minister, as we heard, called Secretary of State Rubio and said diplomats and foreigners should leave. Why would they make such a warning?
NOTTE: That's right. I think, Steve, this is part of Russia's broader intimidation campaign, you know, meant to scare Western countries, raise the temperature. But it's very interesting that Lavrov felt the need to convey this so explicitly to Secretary of State Rubio yesterday. And I really view this as a Russian attempt to regain the attention of the Trump administration, which has been quite distracted by the war with Iran.
If we think back to last year, I think the Russians really hoped to reach a deal on Ukraine at the negotiating table, with the U.S. effectively pressuring Ukraine to accept Russian demands, and as we know, that hasn't happened. Talks are now effectively on hold. The U.S. is preoccupied in the Persian Gulf. So by issuing these warnings and also so directly to the U.S., I think Russia wants to say - hey, we can escalate to try to achieve our goals by military means - and really regain Trump's attention.
INSKEEP: Fascinating. Hanna Notte, thanks so much.
NOTTE: Thanks for having me.
INSKEEP: She's at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
