A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Let's bring in historian and analyst Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins University. He's an authority on Russia, joining us from London. So you just heard that United States might be putting sanctions back on Russia. What kind of effect do you think they may have?
SERGEY RADCHENKO: Well, this is important. We have to increase pressure on Russia, and that includes economics - economic sanctions, in particular, in the oil and gas sector. The G7 statement that was published after the meeting suggested that that might happen. Now, the U.S. has introduced exemptions following the beginning of the war in the Middle East, which allowed Russia then to sell its oil, and I think ending those exemptions would be crucial, or it would add to pressure on Putin.
MARTÍNEZ: Add in what way? Do you think it would actually get Putin to the negotiating table? What kind of pressure do you think that would take?
RADCHENKO: It will perhaps alter his calculations. Putin is determined to continue the war in Ukraine and he continues it now, but we know that Russia's economic situation is getting worse. How long will it take is anyone's guess. Ukraine has carrying - has been carrying out drone strikes against Russian oil refineries. So the population is feeling the, you know, increasing difficulties economically. It has not yet altered Putin's calculus, so we don't know, but the best thing we can do is we can continue increasing sanctions on Russia, making it more difficult for Putin to earn money from the sale of oil and gas, and that will eventually weaken Russia's economy to a point where he will just not be able to continue.
MARTÍNEZ: And we also heard that President Trump says that he's going to do whatever he can about the war, but also that the U.S. has, quote, "nothing to do with it." And he said that Russia's war with Ukraine does not impact the United States. First off, Sergey, is that true? Does Russia's war with Ukraine have no impact on the U.S.?
RADCHENKO: Well, I think it's not true. The threat perceptions are different. It is true in the United States. The war is somewhere in Europe. It's far away. However, this war affects America's allies directly. Think about the frontline states like Poland. This, you know, country is certainly threatened by the war. There are drones - Russian drones that have been flying into Poland. The Baltic states. What if the Russians invade the Baltic states? You know, that would bring about potentially the United States having to trigger - or the Article 5 of NATO having, you know, would have to be triggered as a result, and that would have direct impact on the United States.
So there are issues here that directly involve the United States or have the capability of doing so. So I don't think the United States doesn't have anything to do with this. And then there's another thing. Suppose Russia is victorious in Ukraine. At the moment, it looks unlikely because it's mired, but suppose it is victorious, then what lessons will the Chinese draw from this, and what will the Chinese do with regard to Taiwan? Those things are all interrelated, and the United States cannot stand aloof.
MARTÍNEZ: Would it be fair to say that America's allies that are at a border with Russia, if - maybe if that they feel alone in this case? If the United States truly feels like, you know, that they have nothing to do with the war, I mean, how alone do they feel in this world?
RADCHENKO: Well, obviously, there have been cracks and tensions and trans-Atlantic solidarity, not least over the war in Ukraine. The United States has taken a step back from the conflict since President Trump has come to power. It is no longer providing direct economic aid or military aid to Ukraine, except it's selling weapons, right? It's selling weapons to Ukraine. That's important. It's providing intelligence. This is also important. The Europeans are paying for this because this is much more important to the Europeans, to their security, and they have much more acute sense of threat coming from Russia. But yes, there are moments where Europeans are feeling lonely, and I think you could see at the G7 summit that they were still trying to engage the United States and bring Trump around and say, look, we're still together.
MARTÍNEZ: Would Europe have the military and diplomatic capabilities to bring the war to Ukraine to an end on its own?
RADCHENKO: Yes, over the longer term. In fact, what we have seen recently is the Europeans have taken a much more prominent role in supporting Ukraine. And that includes military support, but also direct financial support. The European Union has approved 90 billion euros to help Ukraine in coming months. So all of those are good steps, and they show that the Europeans are thinking about their security and are potentially playing for American exit from Europe. But however, you know, this is a process that will take time, and so keeping the Americans engaged in the meantime remains an important task.
MARTÍNEZ: One more quick thing. How would you characterize the current relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin?
RADCHENKO: Well, the relationship seems to be just as it was before. Trump is obviously trying to engage Vladimir Putin, and he keeps saying that, you know, if he - effectively, that Putin does not need this war. But Putin has not changed his position. He continues to find this war. And they - for as far as he's concerned, there is no end in sight.
MARTÍNEZ: That's historian and analyst Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins University. Thank you.
RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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