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The state of the NATO alliance amid Trump's second term

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

Now, let's get into some of these tensions with longtime NATO watcher and European security expert Carl Bildt. He's a former prime minister of Sweden and now the co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He also joins us now from his home in Stockholm. Carl, President Trump, as we just heard, said the ceasefire agreement with Iran is over, and the U.S. launched strikes against targets in Iran last night. What do you think NATO's response should be to this?

CARL BILDT: I don't think there would be a specific NATO response because this is not a war that is conducted by NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance for the territorial defense of the member states. This particular war was launched by Israel and the United States against Iran. Yeah, we have - from the European side, we are extremely concerned because it affects the global economy. It affects the European economy. But we have no direct role in either the hostilities or the diplomacy at the moment.

MARTÍNEZ: Mark Rutte thinks that NATO allies will reaffirm that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons. Do you think that means that NATO will either not object or always look away when it comes to whatever the president has planned for Iran?

BILDT: Well, Europe will be sort of in a sort of difficult mood over it. I mean, there have been European diplomacy for three decades on the nuclear issue, which led eventually up to the JCPOA agreement, as you know. So the European position when it comes to a non-nuclear Iran has been firm all the time. But that's also been the firm European position. This can only be achieved by diplomatic means. There is no military solution to that particular problem.

So when now this erupts into a military issue and open conflict, different sort of faces, as we've seen during the last few months, I mean, there's deep concern, because at the end of the day, they have to sit down and reach a political accommodation and a political agreement, which has to include things like inspections in Iran. And you can never achieve that by a bombing.

MARTÍNEZ: Now, Rutte has deployed over the last few months, kind of a charm offensive in his approach to President Trump, I think that's safe to say. How do you think he's doing in what you even called a game of survival?

BILDT: It is a game of survival for NATO, and the route of approach has been to flatter Trump, perhaps somewhat excessively. I think that's the view of most Europeans. But he's done that in order to keep Trump on board, to prevent Trump from doing something like walking away from NATO or doing something that would be even more detrimental to the alliance. Whether that has worked remains to be seen. The Hague summit a year ago, well, it succeeded. We'll see if this summit succeeds. I mean, the mood has now been, of course, very much affected by the upturn or uptick of fighting in the Middle East again. But Rutte is trying to keep the boat afloat by means that are somewhat debatable at times, I would say.

MARTÍNEZ: Debatable, or would you even call them embarrassing for him?

BILDT: Sometimes embarrassing, absolutely. I think it was very embarrassing for the organization as such when he said that we should see Trump as the daddy, and listen to daddy when he tried to lecture us. I mean, that is not the way we treat an alliance between equal partners across the Atlantic. So that was somewhat embarrassing. You might argue that Trump is a very special person. It requires very special means to keep him happy. But, of course, there should be limits even to that.

MARTÍNEZ: OK, quickly before I let you go, let's turn to Russia's war on Ukraine. Before the summit Vladimir Putin told President Trump he was looking forward to returning to the table to try and end the fighting diplomatically. Do you believe that Vladimir Putin really wants to do that?

BILDT: I think, obviously, that Putin wants to end the war, but he wants to end the war on his terms. And he has been trying to get Trump to press those terms upon Zelenskyy ever since Anchorage. And I think there's been an element of sort of unhappiness in Moscow with the fact that Trump has not been coherent enough, I would say, to achieve that particular end. So we'll see where this goes now. U.S. role is, of course, somewhat limited by the fact that all of the support to Ukraine now is European. That has meant that the leverage that the U.S. has is somewhat less than it used to be.

MARTÍNEZ: Carl Bildt is the co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and the former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden. Thank you very much for your time.

BILDT: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

A Martínez is one of the hosts of Morning Edition and Up First. He came to NPR in 2021 and is based out of NPR West.
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