Moore: We start today with elections in Missouri, and specifically who is voting for whom this November. In September of last year, at the behest of President Donald Trump, the Missouri state legislature presented a new congressional map that could potentially provide Republicans with an additional seat at the U.S. Capitol.
Rudi Keller is the deputy editor for the Missouri Independent. He joined me yesterday over the phone and says that when President Trump made that call, Republican state legislators found a way to make it happen.
Keller: They changed the rules of the Senate to limit the debate that was available. They voted to pass the bill without debate in the state Senate. And then it was done. But that was just the start of the fight, not the end of it.
Moore: And so, as you say, this was the start of the fight. It moved forward from here to a ballot initiative that, unless I'm missing something in between then and the ballot initiative. Is there anything in particular that sticks out to you before we move to that point?
Keller: Well, one of the things that goes along with the ballot referendum initiative is the idea that everything about this was challenged in Missouri courts, starting with the governor's power to call the legislature into session, their ability to draw a map without a new census report, which was the key thing that they people who wanted to say that they couldn't hang it on was that the Missouri Constitution says, do it after a census report. Well, they found out from the courts that it doesn't say don't do it any other time. So that means they can.
The referendum power in Missouri suspends the effect of a law when the signatures are sufficient and the referendum is on a legal subject. And our secretary of state, a Republican, who wanted this map to be used, first of all, decided he could take as long as he wanted once the signatures were turned in, as long as the law allowed. And he took right up to the last day and that the law would take effect. And the Republicans hoped that whatever happened with the referendum, there was going to be nothing that could change the fact that Missouri elections would be based on this map.
Moore: There was an election that happened in early August around a couple of different amendments, Amendment 4 and Amendment 5, that led to extraordinarily high voter turnout for these issues. And what we saw from this were results that perhaps surprised the Republican majority.
Keller: Oh, yeah. I think that they had a pretty clear idea that the one that was called Amendment 5, which would have put Missouri on a path to eliminate the income tax, it really didn't have much of a chance, despite about $20 million of spending in its favor. The other one was Amendment 4, and they thought that it would had a better chance. Well, it did. It got about 4% more of the vote. But both of these got 80%-plus votes against them. And Republicans were shocked with the anger that the electorate portrayed.
And that's evident in this referendum petition. 300,000 people signed the referendum petition to put the new map on the ballot, which, so the August primary was conducted in the map that was drawn in 2025. But the Missouri Supreme Court has said that the petition was sufficient so that that map really had no legal effect. This means that Democrats will probably keep the 5th District seat that is based in Kansas City that they have held for as long as I've been covering politics.
Moore: We are looking at one of the organizations that has been a real leader in this referendum process has been the group People Not Politicians. What can you tell us about this organization and their work to not only bring this to light, but also to further it along in the justice system?
Keller: Well, it's had this pilot, the leader of People Not Politicians, Richard von Glahn, has been an incredibly dynamic personality in all of this. And the attorney that has helped on these issues almost came to tears talking about the quality and the determination that Mr. von Glahn has shown, because there were points when it seemed like it may never get to the point where people would vote after thousands of hours of work and maybe $6 or $7 million spent.
And now it's on the ballot. They've achieved the two things that they wanted, which was the new map cannot take effect and will not be used in this year's elections. The referendum will be on the ballot, and it will be one of three things on the ballot that will drive turnout this year, in a year that otherwise would be a very sleepy political year in Missouri.
Moore: This moved out of the state lines of Missouri and made its way up to the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this month in what seemed to be a very matter of fact, “No, let's move on.” Is that a fair reading of what the Supreme Court said?
Keller: Yeah. I mean, we had it basically. It was a big game of ping-pong between Missouri and Washington. And so the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that the referendum was legal and that the previous map would be used. Our secretary of state appealed that to the U.S. Supreme Court. It seemed to be settled when the U.S. Supreme Court turned down that appeal.
Then a federal judge in St. Louis, acting on a case brought by several people, including the candidate in the 5th District who thought he was being given a seat that Republicans could win when he won the primary, sued to say that no, it has to be the map used in the primary, the one drawn last year to favor Republicans.
A federal judge issued an order at the last minute before the ballot was supposed to be set. It was kind of a strange order. It got to the United States Supreme Court. And while the Missouri Supreme Court had the secretary of state before it on a contempt hearing, the United States Supreme Court stayed the federal judge ruling from St. Louis. And that's how we ended up thinking right now that we're going to have a referendum and use the previous map.
Moore: Is this one of the oddest things you've worked on in your handful of decades working in Missouri politics?
Keller: It absolutely is. Because for one thing, it's not entirely over. There's a hearing tomorrow in St. Louis in the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals that could start the whole process, the ping-pong we went back through last week, again. It seems unlikely, but who knows? But in terms of things that are just, this is one of the top five news stories of my entire career.
Moore: We talked before we hit record here about there are implications around what's happening in Missouri that could affect other states, whether that's the neighboring states of Arkansas or Oklahoma. When you think about this at a macro level, the 30,000-foot view, what are some of the things that you think about with this case? The implications of what could or could not happen here that might be a bellwether, if you will, for the future of other states and how they are thinking about redistricting?
Keller: Well, for number one, I would look to the vote on the referendum itself. And because Missouri voters have been told in the news stories and in the straight-up reporting on this, that this is a gerrymandered map intended to help Republicans. And so they say no. Then whether you're, then steps being taken by the government, by the party in power to shore up its own power, threaten that very power.
We're going to find out in November if Republicans are going to pay a real price, because Democrats think they have a great chance to break the supermajority that the Republicans hold in both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. And I was talking with some leaders earlier on today, on Wednesday, where we're talking now. They think as long as they only lose seats in the suburbs, Republicans think they're just okay. That's what we do. We lose seats in the suburbs in an off election year.
If they start losing, they have a blanket hold on rural Missouri. If they start losing seats in rural Missouri, then they're going to realize that they have not only gone too far, but they've angered a significant portion of their own base.
Moore: One thing that sticks out to me in thinking about the voice of the voters and the actions of the government, especially when we're thinking about Missouri, is the aftereffects of the abortion amendment that passed in Missouri during the last election cycle and the effects that have gone into place since that decisive vote that Missourians did want access to abortion in the state. And the government has taken action to essentially invalidate those votes. What sort of long-term effects do you think that has on voters in a state like Missouri?
Keller: Well, I think that we'll know in November, because you point out correctly that we are going to vote on abortion rights again on Nov. 3, along with this referendum, along with a measure that would limit the legislature's power to change things that are initiated by the people.
So I'm expecting an extraordinarily large turnout, and we will get a verdict from Missouri voters that will send a real message to the leadership in the state. And as you were pointing out, if it's the message that you've gone too far and taking care of yourself is not what we want you to do, then Republican politicians and Democrats in neighboring states should probably take notice.
Moore: Rudi Keller is the deputy editor for the Missouri Independent. We spoke over the phone yesterday.
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